Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
