Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
